Vinicius Junior
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$94
Total volume$70k
Liquidity$70k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 15:14 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Vinicius Junior wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story for a factor that influences the result, but only the award winner matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%