Above 158.5 million
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$1
Total volume$34k
Liquidity$34k
Resolved13 Feb 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if American Express reports a total of more than 158.5 million cards-in-force in its third quarter 2026 financial results. The outcome depends solely on this specific metric from that reporting period. Readers often mistake the linked news story about workforce cuts for the relevant data point, but only the Q3 2026 card count matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%