Above 30%
The market favoured Yes at 77% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$236
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved7 Mar 2027
Why it moved: +24 points at 17:11 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Aritzia Surges Most in 18 Months on Earnings, Better Outlook — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 86% |
| 7 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 62% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%