Carlos Alcaraz
The market favoured Yes at 78% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$17k
Total volume$62k
Liquidity$62k
Resolved9 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +26 points at 12:34 UTC, after Times of India: Carlos Alcaraz becomes first player since Pete Sampras to retain Japan Open — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 99% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 73% |
| 5 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 66% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 71% |
| 4 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 68% |
| 4 Oct, 04:45 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 63% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 62% |
| 1 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 59% |
| 1 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 65% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%