Carlos Alcaraz
Implied probability 45%+4
24-hour volume$11k
Total volume$21k
Liquidity$21k
Resolves16 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 45% |
| 10 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 45% |
| 10 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 44% |
| 10 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 43% |
| 10 Oct, 00:39 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 43% |
| 9 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 42% |
| 8 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 39% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 ATP Shanghai professional tennis tournament. It resolves to No if he does not win that specific event. Readers often mistake this for any tournament victory, but only the 2026 ATP Shanghai title counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 45%
- No 55%