Above 130
Implied probability 15%+10
24-hour volume$29
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves7 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 15% |
| 10 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 16:01 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 16% |
| 7 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 48% |
| 6 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 4% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Carbon Arc Amazon Credit Card Spend for October 2026 exceeds 130. It resolves to No if that spend is 130 or lower. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Prime Big Deal Days discounts as the deciding factor, but only the specific credit card spend data matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 15%
- No 85%