Before Jan 20, 2029
Why it moved: +6 points at 14:03 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Trump says that US will stop paying Israel military aid after year-end — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Nov, 14:01 UTC | 11% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Israel and Syria establish formal diplomatic ties before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about the disinformation conference for the actual event required for resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 17%
- No 83%