Above 107
Why it moved: −3 points at 16:30 UTC, after CNBC: American Airlines hikes annual fees on rewards cards for first time since 2018 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 27 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Oct, 16:04 UTC | 15% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Carbon Arc American Airlines Credit Card Spend for October 2026 exceeds 107. It resolves to No if that spend is 107 or lower. Readers often mistake the deadline, confusing the spending period of October 2026 with the resolution date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 88%