Raphael Warnock
Why it moved: −8 points at 11:19 UTC, after Politico: Raphael Warnock is 'nauseously optimistic' about Dem's midterm chances — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 50% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 50% |
| 31 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 58% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Raphael Warnock announces a presidential campaign for the 2028 Democratic nomination before January 1, 2028. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake general optimism about midterm prospects for an official announcement of a presidential run.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 50%
- No 50%