Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
Implied probability 2%
Total volume$177k
Liquidity$26k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 2% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome triggers if any EU member state officially initiates withdrawal or notifies the European Council by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if no such notification occurs within that deadline. Readers often mistake leaving a related organization like Eurovision for withdrawing from the European Union itself.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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