Spread: Bills (-4.5)
The market favoured Bills at 52% a day out, but Raiders won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$608k
Total volume$593k
Liquidity$66k
Resolved18 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 19 Oct, 00:04 UTC | 0% |
| 18 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 52% |
What counts
The Bills outcome triggers if they win by five points or more. The Raiders outcome applies if the Bills win by four points or fewer, or if the Raiders win. Readers often mistake the margin requirement, forgetting that a one-point victory for the Bills does not count as a win for this market.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Bills 0%
- Raiders 100%
View this market on Polymarket →