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Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?

Resolved: Yes 40d ago

The market favoured Yes at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$10k
Total volume$51k
Liquidity$8k
Resolved28 Sept 2026
How the odds moved · Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
0%50%100%100%22 Sept, 08:40 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
28 Sept, 02:33 UTC100%
28 Sept, 02:25 UTC97%
28 Sept, 01:43 UTC98%
28 Sept, 01:28 UTC98%
28 Sept, 00:54 UTC97%
28 Sept, 00:22 UTC97%
27 Sept, 23:37 UTC95%
27 Sept, 23:16 UTC96%
27 Sept, 22:40 UTC95%
27 Sept, 22:24 UTC96%
27 Sept, 21:57 UTC96%
27 Sept, 21:29 UTC95%
27 Sept, 15:59 UTC95%
27 Sept, 15:03 UTC95%
27 Sept, 13:36 UTC94%
27 Sept, 13:15 UTC95%
27 Sept, 12:21 UTC94%
27 Sept, 08:35 UTC94%
27 Sept, 07:48 UTC93%
27 Sept, 07:14 UTC94%
27 Sept, 06:54 UTC94%
27 Sept, 06:17 UTC94%
27 Sept, 05:57 UTC94%
27 Sept, 05:23 UTC94%
27 Sept, 04:59 UTC94%
27 Sept, 04:11 UTC94%
27 Sept, 03:39 UTC94%
27 Sept, 03:19 UTC94%
27 Sept, 02:30 UTC94%
27 Sept, 00:34 UTC94%
26 Sept, 21:24 UTC94%
26 Sept, 18:26 UTC94%
26 Sept, 17:23 UTC94%
26 Sept, 16:56 UTC95%
26 Sept, 15:56 UTC94%
26 Sept, 14:01 UTC94%
26 Sept, 12:13 UTC94%
26 Sept, 11:38 UTC94%
26 Sept, 11:29 UTC95%
26 Sept, 10:59 UTC95%
26 Sept, 10:13 UTC95%
26 Sept, 09:24 UTC95%
26 Sept, 08:38 UTC95%
26 Sept, 08:22 UTC95%
26 Sept, 06:55 UTC96%
26 Sept, 06:25 UTC95%
26 Sept, 05:24 UTC95%
26 Sept, 04:52 UTC95%
26 Sept, 04:01 UTC95%
26 Sept, 03:53 UTC96%
26 Sept, 03:23 UTC96%
26 Sept, 02:24 UTC96%
26 Sept, 01:46 UTC96%
26 Sept, 00:49 UTC96%
25 Sept, 23:22 UTC95%
25 Sept, 22:40 UTC95%
25 Sept, 22:16 UTC95%
22 Sept, 22:41 UTC85%
22 Sept, 17:36 UTC84%
22 Sept, 16:46 UTC85%
22 Sept, 16:16 UTC84%
22 Sept, 15:40 UTC84%
22 Sept, 15:23 UTC85%
22 Sept, 11:59 UTC84%
22 Sept, 11:10 UTC84%
22 Sept, 10:08 UTC87%
22 Sept, 09:44 UTC87%
22 Sept, 09:27 UTC87%
22 Sept, 08:40 UTC85%

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Ella Langley’s video wins the Best Country category at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. It resolves to No if another video wins or if her video is not officially nominated when nominees are announced. Readers often mistake the Billboard record mentioned in the linked story for the award criteria, but only the VMA winner matters.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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