Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 6 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Nov, 10:56 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Nov, 07:38 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Nov, 07:17 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 04:49 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 02:44 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 00:27 UTC | 6% |
| 5 Nov, 23:58 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Nov, 14:08 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Nov, 11:41 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 10:39 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if J.D. Vance is the first person formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President in the 2028 cycle and accepts that nomination. It resolves to No if any other individual meets this criteria first. Readers often mistake the linked news story about midterm losses as the deciding factor, but only the official GOP nomination matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%
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