Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 22:18 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 21:23 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 13:27 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 11:00 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Oct, 05:32 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 02:05 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Oct, 01:58 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 20% |
| 21 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 23% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 22% |
| 21 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 32% |
| 21 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 30% |
| 21 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 29% |
| 21 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 32% |
| 21 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 40% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 38% |
| 21 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 37% |
| 21 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 32% |
| 21 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 29% |
| 21 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Oct, 08:51 UTC | 25% |
| 21 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Oct, 07:42 UTC | 23% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Houthi air or surface-to-surface missiles directly hit recognized Israeli ground territory, including the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. It resolves to No if no such strike lands on that specific land, meaning intercepted munitions, debris, cyber attacks, or threats do not count as qualifying actions.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 81%
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