Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

What counts

The Yes outcome occurs if a Democratic nominee wins the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election, including any run-offs. The No outcome applies if a Republican or independent candidate wins. Readers often mistake the final official certification for the primary resolution trigger; the market actually resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.