Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 31?
Implied probability 60%
24-hour volume$43
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$30k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +4 points at 05:47 UTC, after Latest articles: Saudi Arabia’s MBS is facing his greatest challenge — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 60% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 60% |
| 19 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 56% |
| 19 Oct, 00:37 UTC | 55% |
| 19 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 55% |
| 18 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 55% |
| 18 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 55% |
| 18 Oct, 19:38 UTC | 56% |
| 17 Oct, 19:38 UTC | 55% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Saudi Arabia’s armed forces launch a qualifying air or surface-to-surface strike that directly hits Yemen's land territory on October 31. It resolves to No for any other outcome, including strikes by proxies, intercepted munitions, or actions in Yemen's airspace and waters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 60%
- No 41%
Trade this market on Polymarket →