Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Implied probability 22%+5
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$53k
Liquidity$7k
Resolves30 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 19:32 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 16:58 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 13:33 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 13:11 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Sept, 09:17 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Sept, 08:46 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 16:47 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 10:41 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 07:04 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 06:37 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 03:32 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 22:20 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 16:35 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 16:27 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 10:24 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 02:32 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Sept, 22:15 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Sept, 14:12 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Sept, 10:34 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 23:03 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 12:30 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Sept, 12:17 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Sept, 00:07 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Sept, 23:24 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Sept, 16:57 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Sept, 14:49 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Sept, 12:05 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Sept, 10:00 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Sept, 02:04 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 15% |
| 20 Sept, 00:08 UTC | 16% |
| 19 Sept, 23:58 UTC | 15% |
| 19 Sept, 20:31 UTC | 16% |
| 19 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 16% |
| 19 Sept, 19:04 UTC | 16% |
| 19 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 16% |
| 19 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 16% |
| 19 Sept, 15:14 UTC | 15% |
| 19 Sept, 13:42 UTC | 15% |
| 19 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 15% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 16% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves based on whether the Bank of Japan raises its short-term policy interest rate by exactly 25 basis points after its October 30, 2026 meeting. Any change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution purposes. Readers often mistake the linked story about Goldman Sachs' forecast as the actual decision, but only the official Bank of Japan statement determines the outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 22%
- No 79%
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