Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)
The market favoured RB Leipzig at 60% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$141k
Total volume$149k
Liquidity$158k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Nov, 17:34 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Nov, 16:42 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Nov, 13:53 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Nov, 12:09 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Nov, 08:38 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Nov, 08:38 UTC | 41% |
What counts
Manchester City FC wins if they score two or more goals than RB Leipzig in the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Otherwise, the market resolves to RB Leipzig. Readers often mistake the deadline as the final whistle rather than the end of regular play with added time.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Manchester City FC 0%
- RB Leipzig 100%
View this market on Polymarket →