Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Implied probability 7%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$302k
Liquidity$71k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 01:48 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 00:24 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Sept, 00:24 UTC | 7% |
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What counts
For the outcome to be Yes, a referendum on Alberta's independence must pass by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM. The referendum can establish independence or set a framework for it. Readers often mistake the deadline as January 1, 2027, instead of December 31, 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%
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