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Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Implied probability 4%+3
24-hour volume$24k
Total volume$418k
Liquidity$24k
Resolves20 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
0%50%100%4%13 Oct, 04:01 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now4%
19 Oct, 03:30 UTC2%
18 Oct, 23:03 UTC2%
18 Oct, 22:35 UTC2%
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18 Oct, 09:26 UTC2%
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16 Oct, 14:08 UTC3%
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15 Oct, 19:28 UTC3%
15 Oct, 18:13 UTC4%
15 Oct, 17:53 UTC3%
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15 Oct, 11:07 UTC3%
15 Oct, 10:52 UTC2%
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13 Oct, 06:42 UTC2%
13 Oct, 06:28 UTC3%
13 Oct, 04:34 UTC3%
13 Oct, 04:01 UTC3%

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What counts

For the outcome to be Yes, a referendum on Alberta's independence must pass by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM. The referendum can establish independence or set a framework for it. Readers often mistake the deadline as January 1, 2027, instead of December 31, 2026.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 4%
  • No 96%

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