Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
Implied probability 7%−1
Total volume$2.1M
Liquidity$16k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 11:33 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 09:01 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 7% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hezbollah’s Secretary-General or recognized leadership makes an official public announcement committing to dismantle its military in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if no such formal policy directive occurs by that deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%
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