Will J. J. Spaun win the 2026 BMW PGA Championship?
The market favoured No at 91% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$11k
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$43k
Resolved21 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 100% |
| 19 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 11% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if J. J. Spaun is officially declared the winner of the 2026 BMW PGA Championship. The No outcome applies if he loses, ties and loses the alphabetical tiebreaker, or is eliminated from contention. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the final result, but resolution depends solely on the official DP World Tour website results by September 27, 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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