Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 8%−1
Total volume$41k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 07:18 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 22:05 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 18:01 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 12:04 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 11:50 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 11:05 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 10:37 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 09:50 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla makes a new, consumer-ready humanoid robot available for purchase by the general public through an official channel like tesla.com by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if the product is not publicly purchasable within that deadline or if it remains limited to employees, partners, or internal use.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%
Trade this market on Polymarket →