NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if NATO and Russian forces engage in direct combat, such as missile strikes or gunfire, between January 2 and December 31, 2026. It resolves to "No" if no such direct military engagement occurs within this timeframe. Readers often mistake airspace violations, cyberattacks, or the interception of drones targeting third parties for qualifying military encounters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 19%
- No 82%