Will South Africa win?
The market favoured No at 55% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$15k
Total volume$52k
Liquidity$14k
Resolved3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 31 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 97% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 95% |
| 31 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 97% |
| 31 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 92% |
| 31 Oct, 11:28 UTC | 98% |
| 31 Oct, 10:45 UTC | 98% |
| 31 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 17:04 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 16:50 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Oct, 13:22 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 20% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 23% |
| 29 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 19% |
| 29 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 23% |
| 29 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 23% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 23% |
| 29 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 14% |
| 29 Oct, 06:04 UTC | 14% |
| 29 Oct, 03:07 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 12% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 13% |
| 28 Oct, 21:22 UTC | 13% |
| 28 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 14% |
| 28 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 13% |
| 28 Oct, 19:40 UTC | 14% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 14% |
| 28 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 14% |
| 28 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 14% |
| 28 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 14% |
| 28 Oct, 10:48 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 48% |
| 28 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 46% |
| 28 Oct, 04:10 UTC | 45% |
| 28 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 44% |
| 28 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 44% |
| 28 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 21:40 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 54% |
| 27 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Oct, 14:43 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 50% |
| 27 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 51% |
| 27 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 59% |
| 27 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 60% |
| 27 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 65% |
| 27 Oct, 11:51 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 68% |
| 27 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 65% |
| 27 Oct, 10:27 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Oct, 09:44 UTC | 60% |
| 27 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Oct, 09:01 UTC | 48% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if South Africa wins the scheduled Test match against Australia on October 27, 2026, or if they are declared the winner via DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, or a tiebreak. It resolves to No if Australia wins, and to draw if the match ends in a tie without a tiebreak, is canceled, or has no winner.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →