Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?
Implied probability 100%+2
24-hour volume$654
Total volume$38k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 21 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 100% |
| 20 Oct, 18:31 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 18:01 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 16:34 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 12:46 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 97% |
| 20 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 97% |
| 20 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 97% |
| 20 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 97% |
| 20 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 97% |
| 20 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 97% |
| 20 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 97% |
| 20 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 97% |
| 20 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 98% |
| 19 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 96% |
| 19 Oct, 02:01 UTC | 94% |
| 19 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 87% |
| 19 Oct, 00:11 UTC | 86% |
| 18 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 86% |
| 18 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 86% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 84% |
| 18 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 83% |
| 18 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 83% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 83% |
| 15 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 83% |
| 15 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 82% |
| 15 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 82% |
| 15 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 78% |
| 15 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 83% |
| 15 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 76% |
| 15 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 75% |
| 14 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 76% |
| 14 Oct, 17:32 UTC | 75% |
| 14 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 76% |
| 14 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 76% |
| 14 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 76% |
| 14 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 75% |
| 14 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 76% |
| 14 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 82% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if OpenAI does not make a qualifying announcement that it has resumed training by 11:59 PM ET on October 20, 2026. A qualifying announcement must come from official channels or an authorized representative and clearly state that the specific training suspended on September 25, 2026, has restarted.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 1%
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