Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?
Implied probability 19%−2
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$25k
Liquidity$23k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 19% |
| 24 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 20:42 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 24% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 23% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran or a listed proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables before December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Cyber attacks do not count, and the outcome depends on a consensus of information from resolution sources rather than single reports.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 19%
- No 81%
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