Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?
Implied probability 22%−2
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves1 Jan 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 22% |
| 25 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Oct, 05:10 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Oct, 03:51 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Oct, 23:05 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Oct, 22:12 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Oct, 13:14 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Oct, 08:16 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 25% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 27% |
| 24 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 26% |
| 23 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 27% |
| 23 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 26% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 25% |
| 22 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 22% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia’s armed forces launch an air strike or surface-to-surface missile that hits an EU member state before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if no such strike occurs by that deadline, or if the action involves proxies, intercepted munitions, or excluded weapon types like artillery or cyber operations.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 22%
- No 79%
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