Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 23?
Implied probability 0%−45
24-hour volume$13k
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$9k
Resolves23 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 23 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Oct, 06:25 UTC | 28% |
| 22 Oct, 06:24 UTC | 37% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on October 23, 2026. The outcome depends on whether this specific daily maximum reaches or exceeds 31°C as reported in the finalized Daily Extract. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the source of truth, but only the official data from the Hong Kong Observatory counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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