Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Why it moved: −4 points at 23:19 UTC, after Politico Congress: Bill Foster cools on challenging Maxine Waters — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 23:33 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 34% |
| 29 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Oct, 21:07 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 36% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth leaves the Trump administration or resigns by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before that deadline triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the departure happens later. Readers often mistake the effective date of a departure for the triggering event, but the rule relies on the public announcement.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 32%
- No 68%
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