Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?
Implied probability 1%−2
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$26k
Liquidity$31k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 03:15 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 21:04 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 18:43 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 18:28 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 17:28 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 16:21 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 15:25 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 14:47 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 14:08 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 13:45 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 13:07 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 12:52 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 12:29 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 10:17 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 10:02 UTC | 3% |
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What counts
Iran must issue a formal government recognition of Israel as a state by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for the market to resolve to Yes. An announcement of intentions does not count; only official recognition from the Iranian government matters. Readers often mistake credible reporting consensus for the sole source of truth, but official government information is the primary resolution source.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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