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Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?

Implied probability 8%
24-hour volume$151
Total volume$228k
Liquidity$21k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
0%50%100%8%31 Oct, 10:30 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now8%
7 Nov, 00:23 UTC8%
6 Nov, 11:29 UTC8%
6 Nov, 07:10 UTC8%
5 Nov, 16:13 UTC8%
4 Nov, 15:43 UTC8%
4 Nov, 13:09 UTC7%
4 Nov, 12:40 UTC7%
4 Nov, 09:14 UTC7%
4 Nov, 08:45 UTC7%
4 Nov, 05:53 UTC7%
4 Nov, 04:25 UTC9%
4 Nov, 02:26 UTC9%
4 Nov, 01:49 UTC8%
4 Nov, 01:05 UTC7%
3 Nov, 11:35 UTC7%
3 Nov, 06:01 UTC7%
3 Nov, 03:05 UTC7%
2 Nov, 01:24 UTC7%
2 Nov, 00:55 UTC8%
2 Nov, 00:19 UTC8%
1 Nov, 15:16 UTC10%
1 Nov, 12:02 UTC10%
1 Nov, 11:33 UTC10%
1 Nov, 11:26 UTC9%
1 Nov, 10:50 UTC9%
1 Nov, 10:28 UTC9%
31 Oct, 18:34 UTC9%
31 Oct, 18:19 UTC9%
31 Oct, 17:21 UTC9%
31 Oct, 16:43 UTC9%
31 Oct, 16:29 UTC9%
31 Oct, 15:15 UTC9%
31 Oct, 14:53 UTC8%
31 Oct, 10:30 UTC9%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The market resolves to "Yes" if foreign police, military, or security forces physically enter Gaza’s land territory for an official operational role by December 31, 2026. It resolves to "No" if such a deployment does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake maritime entries, airspace presence, or humanitarian missions as qualifying events.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 8%
  • No 93%

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