Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Why it moved: +3 points at 23:17 UTC, after All Content from Business Insider: Mark Cuban says the best defense against malicious AI agents is more AI — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 38% |
| 24 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 39% |
| 24 Oct, 00:04 UTC | 39% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 39% |
| 23 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 39% |
| 23 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 36% |
| 23 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 12:36 UTC | 36% |
| 23 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 36% |
| 23 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 37% |
| 22 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 36% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves based on which company owns the top-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline or assume any public benchmark counts instead of only the specified arena.ai ranking.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 38%
- No 63%
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