Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by October 31, 2026?
Implied probability 3%−4
24-hour volume$186
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$25k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 12:33 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 09:46 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 21:36 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 20:33 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 20:26 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 03:58 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 19:04 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 06:59 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 23:13 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 20:48 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 13:34 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 05:32 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 04:55 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 03:02 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 01:37 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Oct, 19:54 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 07:05 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 01:31 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 01:17 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 23:07 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 17:31 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 14:33 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 4% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Houthi air or surface-to-surface missiles strike Israeli ground territory, including the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, before October 31, 2026. It resolves to No if no such strike occurs, if munitions are intercepted before impact, or if debris from interceptions lands on the ground.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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