Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$32k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 12:04 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 16:36 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 07:43 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 01:17 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 19:07 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 18:31 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 14:33 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Meta owns the model with the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline or ignore the requirement that style control must be off during the check.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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