Spread: Magic (-1.5)
The market favoured Timberwolves at 56% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$445k
Total volume$444k
Liquidity$207k
Resolved23 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 24 Oct, 03:51 UTC | 0% |
| 23 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 50% |
| 23 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 50% |
| 23 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 50% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 48% |
| 23 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 49% |
| 22 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 44% |
What counts
The Magic outcome wins if Orlando beats Minnesota by two points or more. The Timberwolves outcome wins if they win the game or if the match ends in a tie. Readers often mistake the spread for a simple winner bet, ignoring that the Magic must cover the -1.5 point handicap.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Magic 0%
- Timberwolves 100%
View this market on Polymarket →