Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Why it moved: −4 points at 06:57 UTC, after Bloomberg Technology: New Data Centers Worth $68 Billion Disrupted in US, Data Show — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 86% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 86% |
| 21 Sept, 09:46 UTC | 88% |
| 21 Sept, 08:37 UTC | 87% |
| 21 Sept, 08:24 UTC | 85% |
| 21 Sept, 07:28 UTC | 86% |
| 21 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 87% |
| 21 Sept, 06:19 UTC | 91% |
| 21 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 92% |
| 21 Sept, 01:48 UTC | 91% |
| 21 Sept, 00:38 UTC | 90% |
| 21 Sept, 00:24 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Sept, 23:24 UTC | 85% |
| 20 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 85% |
| 20 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 86% |
| 20 Sept, 17:29 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Sept, 16:57 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Sept, 15:28 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Sept, 14:49 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Sept, 13:06 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 86% |
| 20 Sept, 12:17 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 86% |
| 20 Sept, 11:17 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Sept, 08:45 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Sept, 08:23 UTC | 89% |
| 20 Sept, 07:53 UTC | 88% |
| 20 Sept, 07:21 UTC | 89% |
| 20 Sept, 06:58 UTC | 88% |
| 20 Sept, 06:25 UTC | 89% |
| 20 Sept, 05:59 UTC | 88% |
| 20 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 88% |
| 20 Sept, 04:19 UTC | 90% |
| 20 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 90% |
| 20 Sept, 03:24 UTC | 89% |
| 20 Sept, 02:54 UTC | 88% |
| 20 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 89% |
| 20 Sept, 01:31 UTC | 87% |
| 19 Sept, 23:58 UTC | 87% |
| 19 Sept, 22:48 UTC | 88% |
| 19 Sept, 21:34 UTC | 88% |
| 19 Sept, 20:40 UTC | 87% |
| 19 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 87% |
| 19 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 87% |
| 19 Sept, 15:50 UTC | 86% |
| 19 Sept, 13:42 UTC | 87% |
| 19 Sept, 12:07 UTC | 87% |
| 19 Sept, 11:49 UTC | 88% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 88% |
| 18 Sept, 03:19 UTC | 84% |
| 18 Sept, 01:16 UTC | 84% |
| 17 Sept, 22:01 UTC | 83% |
| 17 Sept, 21:48 UTC | 83% |
| 17 Sept, 21:12 UTC | 82% |
| 17 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 82% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves based on which company holds the second-highest Lab Rank on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline or assume general AI reputation determines the ranking instead of the specific arena.ai metrics.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 86%
- No 14%
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