Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?
Why it moved: +4 points at 16:25 UTC, after Billboard: Yami Safdie and Maluma’s ‘Felicidades,’ & More: Vote for the Best New Latin Music Release This Week — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 93% |
| 30 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 93% |
| 30 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 91% |
| 30 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 87% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 87% |
| 30 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 87% |
| 30 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 87% |
| 30 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 87% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 06:35 UTC | 87% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 85% |
| 30 Oct, 01:03 UTC | 85% |
| 30 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 81% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Spotify names Drake as the most-streamed artist in the US for 2026, or if he ties with others but appears first alphabetically. It resolves to No if any other artist holds that title. Readers often mistake the resolution source, assuming Billboard charts determine the winner instead of Spotify's official data.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 93%
- No 7%
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