Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?
Why it moved: +10 points at 04:48 UTC, after South China Morning Post: Exiled opposition leader tries to enter Venezuela as Rodriguez meets Trump in US — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 06:43 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 06:21 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 05:42 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 04:48 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Sept, 04:48 UTC | 7% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if María Corina Machado physically enters Venezuela’s land territory before September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if she does not enter the country by that deadline. Readers often mistakenly count visits to Venezuelan airspace or maritime zones as a successful entry.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 16%
- No 85%
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