Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$205
Total volume$70k
Liquidity$21k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 30 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 16:50 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 01:12 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 06:05 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 18:08 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 17:15 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth stops serving as Secretary of Defense at any point before October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal by that deadline triggers a Yes outcome, even if the change takes effect later. Readers often mistake the date of an announced departure for the effective date, but only the cessation of service matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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