Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?
Implied probability 62%−9
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$31k
Resolves26 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 62% |
| 20 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 61% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 65% |
| 19 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 71% |
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What counts
For the outcome to be Yes, Saudi Arabia's armed forces must launch a qualifying air or surface-to-surface strike that directly hits Yemen's land or internal waters on October 25. The market resolves to No if no such strike occurs, if the action is carried out by proxies, or if munitions are intercepted before impact.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 62%
- No 39%
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