Israel withdraws from Lebanon by March 31, 2027?
Why it moved: −3 points at 10:02 UTC, after WIRED: Israel Is Destroying the Machinery South Lebanon Needs to Rebuild — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 6 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 10% |
| 5 Nov, 20:04 UTC | 11% |
| 5 Nov, 19:43 UTC | 10% |
| 5 Nov, 19:14 UTC | 10% |
| 5 Nov, 18:20 UTC | 10% |
| 5 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 10% |
| 5 Nov, 17:28 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Nov, 16:36 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Nov, 15:25 UTC | 10% |
| 5 Nov, 13:52 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Nov, 13:07 UTC | 10% |
| 5 Nov, 12:59 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Nov, 12:14 UTC | 10% |
| 5 Nov, 11:41 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 10% |
| 5 Nov, 10:02 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 10:02 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Israel announces that all its ground forces have left Lebanon by 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2027. The announcement must confirm a completed withdrawal, not just a plan or future intention. Readers often mistake the Shebaa Farms area as Lebanese territory, but it counts as Israeli land for this market.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 90%
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