Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Implied probability 100%+11
24-hour volume$112k
Total volume$339k
Liquidity$41k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 00:22 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 19:06 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 16:04 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Nov, 09:40 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 07:12 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 05:32 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 03:54 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Nov, 13:41 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Nov, 08:57 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 87% |
| 2 Nov, 03:49 UTC | 87% |
| 2 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 88% |
| 1 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 00:14 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 12:04 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 06:22 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 87% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 87% |
| 30 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 87% |
| 30 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 88% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 87% |
| 30 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 87% |
| 30 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 84% |
| 29 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 03:00 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 85% |
| 28 Oct, 21:22 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 19:07 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 83% |
| 28 Oct, 16:02 UTC | 83% |
| 28 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 83% |
| 28 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 05:33 UTC | 85% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins. Readers often mistake the moment of victory for the resolution time; the market only resolves when Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification if they do not agree.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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