Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Implied probability 5%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$10.3M
Liquidity$274k
Resolves8 Nov 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 15:53 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 05:42 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 05:21 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 21:07 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 19:08 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Josh Shapiro wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, as confirmed by official party sources. It resolves to No in all other cases. Readers often mistake the resolution source, assuming it depends on election results rather than the formal acceptance of the nomination.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%
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