U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 19:17 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 17:09 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 15:25 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 12:42 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 12:09 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 10:19 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 09:43 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 09:29 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 08:16 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 04:30 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 08:46 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 08:24 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 07:59 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 06:21 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 05:26 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 04:54 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 03:22 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 02:57 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 02:18 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 01:53 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 00:47 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 00:28 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 23:53 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 23:28 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 22:54 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 22:28 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 21:53 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 21:19 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 20:57 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Sept, 19:35 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Sept, 16:46 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Sept, 16:28 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 14:57 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 13:23 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Sept, 13:23 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a free trade agreement with Vietnam becomes U.S. law by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This outcome requires the agreement to pass through Senate ratification or a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed by the President. Readers often mistake the linked story about housing for relevant trade policy, but only actual trade legislation counts toward resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 18%
- No 82%
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