Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Why it moved: −9 points at 21:57 UTC, after TechCrunch: Google expands AI Search ads globally as core ad growth slows — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 28 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 30% |
| 28 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 22:18 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 25% |
| 27 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 35% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
Alphabet must hold the third-highest total value of its outstanding shares at the end of trading on December 31, 2026, to trigger the Yes outcome. Any other company ranking higher in market capitalization results in a No outcome. Readers often mistake daily stock price movements or revenue reports for the final determination, but only the closing market cap on that specific date counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 31%
- No 69%
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