Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?
The market favoured Yes at 55% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$24k
Total volume$77k
Liquidity$10k
Resolved30 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +49 points at 12:52 UTC, after Bloomberg.com: US Economy Grows Most in a Year, Midterm Countdown, More — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 29 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 100% |
| 28 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 51% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate for Q3 2026 GDP growth greater than 3.0%. The No outcome applies if that specific estimate is 3.0% or lower, or if no official estimate is released by the deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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