Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Implied probability 98%+1
24-hour volume$201
Total volume$339k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 20:13 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 10:45 UTC | 98% |
| 17 Oct, 13:34 UTC | 98% |
| 17 Oct, 12:27 UTC | 98% |
| 17 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 97% |
| 16 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 98% |
| 16 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 98% |
| 16 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 98% |
| 16 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 98% |
| 16 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 97% |
| 15 Oct, 07:00 UTC | 93% |
| 15 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 93% |
| 13 Oct, 23:33 UTC | 95% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if the CDC measles case counter shows 5,000 or more confirmed cases in the United States during 2026. It resolves to "No" if the count stays below that threshold by the end of the year. Readers often mistakenly use state-level reports or news articles instead of the official CDC counter.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%
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