Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 24?
Why it moved: −16 points at 08:39 UTC, after South China Morning Post: Hong Kong marks hottest ‘Frost’ solar term on record at 32.1 degrees Celsius — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 27% |
| 23 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Oct, 09:34 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 39% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves based on the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on October 24, 2026. For the Yes outcome, that specific daily minimum must be exactly 25°C; otherwise, it is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about recent heat for the actual resolution data, but only the finalized official record from the Hong Kong Observatory counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 31%
- No 69%
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