Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Implied probability 2%+1
24-hour volume$15k
Total volume$88k
Liquidity$49k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 05:29 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 04:51 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 04:26 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 03:54 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 03:27 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 21:54 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 20:56 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 17:37 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 17:15 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 16:36 UTC | 1% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Alibaba wins if its model holds the highest rank among all companies listed in the market group at that specific time. Readers often mistake the resolution source for a different ranking system or miss the exact deadline and timezone.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 99%
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