Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Implied probability 6%
24-hour volume$193
Total volume$236k
Liquidity$37k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 06:12 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 05:57 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 02:21 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 15:41 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 04:25 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 01:06 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 00:34 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 17:31 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 16:50 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 04:17 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 23:27 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 22:04 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 13:27 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 09:11 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 11:31 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 08:03 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 07:50 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 04:19 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 01:24 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 16:27 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 6% |
| 19 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 7% |
| 19 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 7% |
| 19 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 7% |
| 19 Oct, 02:22 UTC | 6% |
| 19 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 6% |
| 18 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 6% |
| 18 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 6% |
| 18 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 22:14 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 12:28 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. OpenAI wins if its model holds the highest rank or breaks ties in favor of its company name at that exact moment. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the day rather than the specific 12:00 PM ET check time.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%
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